India is expected to overtake Germany to become the fourth-largest economy in 2026 and Japan will become the third largest in 2034, according to a recent report by UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which said India is also set to reach a gross domestic product (GDP) of $5 trillion by 2026, two years later than the government’s target.
“India has decisively overtaken both France and the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2019. It is expected to overtake Germany to become fourth largest in 2026 and Japan to become the third largest in 2034,” the report, titled ‘World Economic League Table 2020,” said. CEBR said Japan, Germany and India will battle for third position over the next 15 years.
Noting that Indian data revisions mean that 2019 was the year when the country’s economy finally overtook the United Kingdom and France, the report said, “But, slow growth during the year has increased pressure for more radical economic reforms.”
CEBR Senior Economist Pablo Shah said despite the rapid ascent of countries like India and Indonesia, it is striking how little an impact this will have on the dominant roles played by the United States and China in the global economy. India, which till recently was hailed as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, has seen growth rate decline to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent in the September quarter of 2019-20.
The World Economic League Table is an annual calculation by CEBR jointly published by CEBR and Global Construction Perspectives. The base data for 2019 is taken from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook.